What is win rate?Win Rate
The share of all trades that made money.
Learn “win rate” in an animated lesson
- Risk Management & Trading PsychologyExpectancy: Win Rate Isn't Everything
A 40% win rate can make money, and an 80% win rate can still blow up. What decides the outcome is win rate combined with payoff ratio.
- Risk Management & Trading PsychologyThe Kelly Criterion: How Much to Bet
Bet too little and your money grows slowly; bet too much and volatility drags you down. The Kelly criterion finds the bet size that grows wealth fastest over the long run.
- Risk Management & Trading PsychologyLosing Streaks and the Risk of Ruin
The same profitable strategy can produce wildly different equity curves with different luck. Use a Monte Carlo simulation to run hundreds of possible futures and see how bad it can get.
- Indicators in Practice & BacktestingBacktesting a Moving Average Strategy
Test your rules against historical data: return, win rate and maximum drawdown, and you can't skip any of them.
- Indicators in Practice & BacktestingExit Rules: Trading Win Rate Against Payoff
Same entry, different exits (fixed take-profit, trailing stop, time stop): how do win rate, payoff ratio and expectancy change?
- Indicators in Practice & BacktestingSample Size: Is 7 Wins out of 8 Reliable?
With too few trades, win rate and returns are easily swayed by luck. Use a confidence interval to ask: roughly where is the true win rate?
- Trend IndicatorsMoving Average Crossovers: Golden and Death Crosses
A short-term average crossing above a long-term one is a golden cross; crossing below is a death cross. The most classic trend signal there is.
Related terms
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Go to “Expectancy: Win Rate Isn't Everything”