What is surprise?Surprise
The gap between the released figure and what the market expected; prices react to the surprise, not to whether the data is good or bad.
Learn “surprise” in an animated lesson
- Physical CommoditiesCrude Oil: Inventories and Price
Weekly crude inventory data is the market's weathervane: rising inventories mean oversupply, falling inventories mean strong demand.
- Fundamental AnalysisHow Macro Data Moves Prices
The moment inflation, jobs or interest rate decisions are released, stocks, bonds and currencies often swing hard together. What matters isn't whether the data is good or bad, but how far it is from expectations.
Related terms
See how “surprise” works for yourself with an animation you can drag and play.
Go to “Crude Oil: Inventories and Price”